Likely voters and the 'blue wave'Article
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Likely voters and the 'blue wave'Article
In 2024, Donald Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points, trailing the 2.6 point margin of Republican House candidates. Since then, it’s been downhill for Republicans, with Trump’s popularity falling into the mid-30s and popular dissatisfaction about inflation, tariffs, endless wars, ballrooms and monuments. Democrats have led in 2026 midterm polling for over a year, but recent polls (including our own) have shown double-digit leads and fueled talk of a blue wave.
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In 2024, Donald Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points, trailing the 2.6 point margin of Republican House candidates. Since then, it’s been downhill for Republicans, with Trump’s popularity falling into the mid-30s and popular dissatisfaction about inflation, tariffs, endless wars, ballrooms and monuments. Democrats have led in 2026 midterm polling for over a year, but recent polls (including our own) have shown double-digit leads and fueled talk of a blue wave.
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In 2024, Donald Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points, trailing the 2.6 point margin of Republican House candidates. Since then, it’s been downhill for Republicans, with Trump’s popularity falling into the mid-30s and popular dissatisfaction about inflation, tariffs, endless wars, ballrooms and monuments. Democrats have led in 2026 midterm polling for over a year, but recent polls (including our own) have shown double-digit leads and fueled talk of a blue wave.
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